10/07/2008 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Luckily for the San Diego Chargers, Oakland and Kansas City are still in their division.
The Chargers headed to Miami for a showdown with the supposedly-overmatched Dolphins this past Sunday and came back home with a 2-3 record after suffering a surprising 17-10 loss at Dolphin Stadium. The defending AFC West champion Chargers were in this same position a year ago and ended up in the conference title game against New England. But this is not 2007, and San Diego can not afford to take teams lightly much like they did a few days ago.
Maybe San Diego's current losing streak against the Dolphins played a role in the team giving up 390 yards of offense, including 223 yards through the air. Miami running back Ronnie Brown plowed his way through the tough Chargers defense for 125 yards and a score to help San Diego remain winless in six games at Miami since an overtime win in the 1982 AFC Playoffs.
The Chargers probably could care less about their streak in South Beach, because they still sit second in the AFC West behind the 4-1 Denver Broncos, with the 1-3 Raiders just a half-game behind. The Chiefs are at the bottom of the division at 1-4.
Questions have surfaced whether head coach Norv Turner is right for this job, and the veteran coach is proving he may not be. How can the high-powered Chargers, led by quarterback Philip Rivers and explosive running back LaDainian, Tomlinson produce just 10 points?
A big reason is that San Diego only had the ball for 23 minutes and 19 seconds and finished with 202 total yards of offense, its lowest output of 2008. Offenses can't get in sync when they have the ball for less than a half-hour of a 60-minute game. Rivers threw for less than 200 yards for the second straight game and finished 13-of-28 for 159 yards with a touchdown pass to Chris Chambers, who left the game with a leg injury.
The Chargers, who entered Sunday's game with the NFL's second-highest scoring offense and had a two-game winning streak halted, have fallen behind in each of their five games this season.
This week San Diego will host the New England Patriots at Qualcomm Stadium in a rematch of last year's AFC Championship Game. If the Chargers have any chance this coming Sunday night, they must control the running game and apply pressure on Patriots quarterback Matt Cassel. San Diego had just once sack in Miami.
Expect a breakout performance from Tomlinson, as New England ranks towards the bottom in run defense this season. LT finished with 35 yards on 12 carries against the Dolphins, partly because the offense failed to get into a rhythm.
BRONCOS: Broncos quarterback Jay Cutler hit nine different receivers in Sunday's 16-13 victory over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at INVESCO Field at Mile High, and Denver's defense delivered to aid the cause.
Ranking near the bottom in total defense, the Broncos were able to knock Bucs quarterback Brian Griese out of the game and hold Tampa Bay to 307 total yards of offense. Future Hall of Fame cornerback Champ Bailey delivered the final blow to Griese with a blind-side blitz in the third quarter. The Broncos had three sacks and one interception in the win, and got by with one touchdown and three field goals from Matt Prater.
Prater also had four kickoffs for touchbacks to help the AFC West-leading Broncos to its first 4-1 start since finishing the 2006 campaign with a 9-7 mark.
Cutler has been impressive all season, but threw for a season-low 227 yards on 23-of-34 passing.
Denver, which entered the contest averaging 33 points a game, finally got a lift from a stop unit that had given up almost 30 points per contest in its first four games of the season.
Head coach Mike Shanahan will have his work cut out for him this week, with the Jacksonville Jaguars coming to town hungry for a win.
Denver's win over the Bucs came at a costly price, as three offensive contributors went down with injuries. Tight end Tony Scheffler (groin), running back Selvin Young (groin) and rookie wide receiver Eddie Royal (sprained ankle) all left the game, and Royal was seen leaving the facility on crutches. Defensive end Ebenezer Ekuban also suffered an injured groin in the win.
CHIEFS: Another inept performance from the Kansas City Chiefs has the team 1-4 for the first time since 2004, when they went 7-9 and finished third in the AFC West. It seems this year the Chiefs will finish fourth in the division standings, if Sunday's 34-0 loss at Carolina has any bearing on the future.
The stat sheet could have given head coach Herm Edwards nightmares after his offense produced just 127 total yards, with only 35 coming on the ground. It's hard to believe this is the same team that handed mighty Denver a 33-19 setback the week before. Running back Larry Johnson finished with only two yards on seven carries after scorching the Broncos for 198 yards and a pair of scores on 28 attempts that helped the Chiefs end a 12-game losing streak.
Kansas City is back in the loss column again and was forced to rely on quarterback Damon Huard on Sunday with Johnson failing to get the ground game in gear. Huard completed only 10 of his 21 pass attempts for 86 yards and two interceptions. He also lost a fumble for Kansas City, which couldn't celebrate tight end Tony Gonzalez's achievement in a good mood.
Gonzalez hauled in a six-yard pass late in the first quarter to move past Shannon Sharpe for the NFL's career leader for yards receiving for a tight end (10,075). Gonzalez then noted after the game that it was the worst he's been involved with in his professional career. It's a shame for the future Hall of Famer, who's been rumored to be pulling for a trade out of Kansas City.
Gonzalez might be catching passes in a few weeks from Tyler Thigpen, who came on in the fourth quarter and finished 5-of-10 passing for 37 yards.
Kansas City has a bye week and will host the currently-unbeaten Tennessee Titans at Arrowhead Stadium on October 19. It has been rumored quarterback Brodie Croyle may return under center after missing the last three weeks due to a shoulder injury. Croyle is 0-7 lifetime as a starter and went 11-of-19 for 88 yards in a Week 1 loss at New England.
RAIDERS: Oakland owner Al Davis gets a chance to prove his firing of head coach Lane Kiffin was justifiable this Sunday, when the Raiders pay a visit to the New Orleans Saints at the Louisiana Superdome. After Kiffin was accused by Davis of propaganda and lies, the long-time Raiders patriarch handed offensive line coach Tom Cable the reins of his plummeting football team. Even though it appears Davis needs to be in a nursing home or somewhere retired in Florida, the legendary face of the organization still has the commitment to excellence.
Davis, who reportedly fired Kiffin over the phone, has also been very vehement on not paying the remaining $2.6 million on the former head coach's current contract.
Oakland is 1-3 this season and third in the AFC West, and is coming off a bye week. Now they get to see what Cable can do. According to the interim head coach, he will still rely on a ground game that ranks among the best in the league with an average of 155 yards per game.
Cable has been a head coach before, going 11-35 at the University of Idaho from 2000 through 2003. According to offensive tackle Kwame Harris, the new sideline boss is "going to be awesome."
Davis obviously hopes so, since he has turned his lifelong love affair into a laughing stock of the NFL the past few seasons. Even former Raiders defensive tackle Warren Sapp needed to chime in on the whole ordeal by mentioning how he used to warn free agents to stay away from Oakland.
In significant injury news for the Raiders, rookie running back Darren McFadden has been sitting out recent practices with a turf toe injury on his right foot. McFadden hasn't missed any games this season and owns 272 yards and a touchdown on 51 carries. Veteran running back Justin Fargas has been resting a sore groin and is expected to be ready for the Saints on Sunday.
<< Tennessee suspends Johnson, Myers
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<< Saints CB Porter out for season
New Orleans, LA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - New Orleans Saints cornerback Tracy
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NFC West: Cardinals show there's no place like home >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Much has been made of Arizona Cardinals head coach Ken
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Oden solid in preseason debut >>
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There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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