11/15/2008 - Monchengladbach, Germany (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - American midfielder Michael Bradley scored his first goal in the Bundesliga on Saturday, helping Monchengladbach to a stunning 2-2 draw against defending champions Bayern Munich.
Bradley, who scored 19 goals in all competitions for Dutch club Heerenveen last season, scored the tying goal in the 81st minute to complete Monchengladbach's two-goal rally.
Bradley, who joined Monchengladbach on Aug. 31 when he signed a four-year deal, has cemented his role with the promoted club after a slow start. After playing in just one of the team's first five matches, he has played in seven straight, including four starts.
The 21-year-old, who is the son of U.S. coach Bob Bradley, finally notched his first goal in Germany and it was perfect timing for his new club.
Luca Toni and Franck Ribery scored to give Bayern Munich a two-goal lead, but Rob Friend - a teammate of Bradley's at Heerenveen - scored in the 79th minute to set the stage for Bradley's tying goal.
Bradley, who became the most prolific goal scorer in European history last year for an American player, headed in the tying goal and was mobbed by teammates.
Alexander Baumjohann started the play that led to the goal, making a back heel pass at the top of the area to find Roberto Colautti inside the box. Colautti slid to keep possession with Bayern defenders Martin Demichelis and Christian Lell trying to win the ball.
Colautti returned to his feet and chipped the ball across the area to Bradley, who jumped to head the ball inside the right post past a diving Bayern goalie Michael Rensing.
Monchengladbach won for just the third time this season, but is just one point out of the relegation zone.
Bayern Munich blew a two-goal lead for the third time this season - all draws - and slipped three points behind Bayer Leverkusen and Hoffenheim but remained in third place. Bayern had its five-game winning streak snapped.
Leverkusen maintained its edge over Hoffenheim with a 2-1 victory over Schalke. Patrick Helmes and Stefan Kiessling scored to stake Leverkusen to a first-half lead and Bayer held on despite going down a man in the 67th minute. Bayer leads Hoffenheim on goal differential.
Hoffenheim kept pace with a 3-2 win over Wolfsburg. Vedad Ibisevic scored his league-leading 14th goal and Obasi Ogbuke notched the game-winner in the 69th. Carlos Eduardo scored Hoffenheim's other goal, while Grafite and Edin Dzeko had Wolfsburg's goals.
Hertha Berlin switched places with Hamburg thanks to a 2-1 win, moving up one spot to fourth while Hamburg slipped to fifth. Cicero and Valeri Domovchiyski scored three minutes apart early in the second half to help Hertha rally from an early deficit.
Also Saturday, Neven Subotic scored twice in Borussia Dortmund's 4-0 win over Eintracht, Branko Jelic scored in the 80th minute in Energie's 1-0 win against Karlsruhe and Stuttgart tied Arminia Bielefeld 0-0.
On Sunday, Werder Bremen hosts Koln.
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Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.
“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said.
“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not. “Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).
Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.
Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the sports betting action, public perception and sportsbook betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football betting team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias.
The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.
Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game
Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.
Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.
Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”
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