11/14/2008 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - After coming out on top against a pair of division leaders in consecutive weeks, the Indianapolis Colts will host the basement-dwelling Houston Texans this Sunday at Lucas Oil Stadium.
Houston is last in the AFC South standings with a 3-6 mark, while 5-4 Indianapolis is second in the division and four games behind front-running and still-unbeaten Tennessee.
The Colts are a longshot at winning the AFC South for a sixth straight year and are trying to regroup for a playoff berth after a shaky start to the 2008 season. Indianapolis has won back-to-back games over New England and Pittsburgh and is 4-2 over its last six contests. In order to make a run at the postseason, the Colts must put together a streak of wins and not overlook Sunday's opponent.
Colts eight-time Pro Bowl quarterback Peyton Manning has been solid the past seven games, with 10 touchdown passes against four interceptions for Indianapolis, which has reached the playoffs in eight of the past nine years and has won 52 of its last 66 regular-season tilts. The Colts are starting to play better at home too, having dropped its first two tests at brand-new Lucas Oil Stadium before its current two-game winning streak there.
Houston, which is one year removed from finishing with the first .500 record in franchise history, is in its familiar spoiler position after dropping two straight. The consecutive losses, including Sunday's embarrassing 41-13 defeat to Baltimore, comes on the heels of a three-game winning streak that once put the Texans in playoff contention. Now the Texans are trying to reach the .500 mark once again, but it will be a difficult task for a team that has yet to win on the road this season.
Texans head coach Gary Kubiak has watched his team drop four straight away from Reliant Stadium this year and seven in a row dating back to last season. Houston's next two games are on the road.
To make matters worse for Kubiak, starting quarterback Matt Schaub is still injured and backup Sage Rosenfels had an outing to forget against the Ravens. Kubiak hopes Rosenfels' familiarity with Indianapolis -- he started Houston's Week 5 home loss to the Colts -- will come in handy Sunday.
SERIES HISTORY
The Colts are 12-1 all-time against the Texans, including a 31-27 win at Reliant Stadium in Week 5. In that game, Indianapolis became the first team in NFL history to erase a 17-point deficit with less than four minutes to play to win in regulation. The Texans are 0-6 all-time in Indianapolis, and scored their only victory in the series with a 27-24 win at Reliant Stadium in Week 16 of 2006.
Colts head coach Tony Dungy is 12-1 against the Texans all-time, while Kubiak is 1-4 against both Dungy and the Colts as a head coach.
WHEN THE TEXANS HAVE THE BALL
Rosenfels (764 passing yards, 4 TD, 6 INT) started last week versus Baltimore and threw four costly interceptions, two of which led to touchdowns. He has played well in his career against the AFC South with Houston, passing for 1,359 yards with 13 touchdowns and 10 interceptions for an 85.8 quarterback rating versus the division. Rosenfels, who was sacked three times on Sunday, will lead the league's fourth-best passing offense that also contains wideouts Andre Johnson and Kevin Walter. Johnson (67 receptions, 900 yards, 3 TD) leads the NFL in receptions and receiving yards, and is averaging 120.2 yards over the past six games. He hasn't missed a beat with the new quarterback and is aiming for his third straight game with a touchdown against the Colts. Walter (37 receptions, 6 TD) leads the Texans in touchdowns and had four catches for 85 yards and a score last week.
The Colts' seventh-ranked pass defense showed up in the Steel City by picking off Ben Roethlisberger three times, with defensive end Dwight Freeney (16 tackles, 5 sacks) posting a pair of sacks as well. Freeney owns nine career sacks against the Texans. Steelers wideout Hines Ward was able to post 116 yards on nine receptions in a losing effort last week, however. Cornerbacks Keiwan Ratliff (19 tackles, 1 INT) and Tim Jennings (39 tackles, 2 INT) and safety Melvin Bullitt (48 tackles, 3 INT) each had an interception off Roethlisberger. Cornerback Kelvin Hayden (17 tackles, 1 INT) has missed the past five games because of knee and hamstring injuries, but may return to face the Texans. Indy's defensive backfield will be busy against Johnson and Walter on Sunday.
Houston had trouble against Baltimore's excellent run defense last week, posting just 75 yards on the ground. Rookie running back Steve Slaton (545 rushing yards, 5 TD), who was having such a hot start to his career, was cooled off to the tune of seven yards on four carries. Backup Ryan Moats (51 rushing yards) led the way for the Texans with 34 yards on seven carries, while Ahman Green (238 rushing yards, 1 TD) carried the ball four times for 19 yards. The reason for Slaton's lack of carries was because he needed rest, according to Kubiak, but the youngster is still one of the team's most productive offensive players and will likely have a bigger role this week. Slaton ranks third among NFL rookies in rushing yards, and he had 93 and a pair of scores on 16 attempts in the first matchup with the Colts.
Dungy's run defense is only 24th in the league, but the Colts were able to hold Pittsburgh to 55 yards on the ground last week. The defense suffered through some major struggles earlier in the year, but has been progressing the past few weeks. The Colts made a few plays at the Pittsburgh goal line, but caught a break with Steelers top back Willie Parker out due to injury.. Defensive tackles Eric Foster (25 tackles) and Keyunta Dawson (34 tackles) combined for nine stops last week. Safety Bob Sanders (28 tackles, 1 INT) is often used in run-stopping situations and uses his bulked-up frame to make plays in the backfield. On a few occasions in last week's game, Sanders' efforts left Steelers head coach Mike Tomlin shaking his head in disgust.
WHEN THE COLTS HAVE THE BALL
Manning (2,248 passing yards, 15 TD, 9 INT) is coming off a three-touchdown performance at Pittsburgh, and his 17-yard scoring strike to Dominic Rhodes in the waning minutes of the game sealed the win. He is the leader of Indy's eight-rated passing offense and owns five TD passes, no interceptions and a sizzling 106.8 passer rating over the previous two weeks. The Colts are 40-7 when he has two or more touchdown passes in a game. The offensive line has been giving Manning enough time this season, but he was sacked twice last Sunday after avoiding pressure in the three previous games. Wideout Reggie Wayne (49 receptions, 700 yards, 5 TD) has been the go-to guy ever since veteran Marvin Harrison went down with a knee injury last year. He has recorded five or more catches in a game six times this season and is coming off a 114-yard, one-touchdown performance at the Steelers, his second 100-yard receiving game of the season and 24th of his career. Wayne is averaging 108 yards receiving per game over the past three weeks as well. Harrison (30 receptions, 3 TD) is still a threat and tight end Dallas Clark (34 receptions, 3 TD) has three touchdown catches in the Colts' past three games.
The Ravens don't have much of a passing attack, and Houston was able to limit them to 171 yards through the air last Sunday. The Texans had a season-high three sacks in the first half, but were unable to provide any pressure on rookie quarterback Joe Flacco after the break. The Texans were not able to post any interceptions either, one of the reason why the defense surrendered 41 points. Kubiak's secondary is rated 14th in the league against the pass, allowing 198.7 yards per game through the air. Cornerbacks Jacques Reeves, Fred Bennett, Dunta Robinson and Eugene Wilson each had a pass defensed last weekend and will be busy again covering Wayne, Harrison and Clark. Reeves (27 tackles, 2 INT) leads all Houston defensive backs in tackles and is tied with Wilson (19 tackles, 2 INT) for the team lead with two interceptions. Defensive ends Tim Bulman and Earl Cochran and linebacker Kevin Bentley each had a sack last week. End Mario Williams (32 tackles, 8 sacks) has six sacks in his last six games and three in the Texans' last two meetings with Indianapolis. Since 2007, Williams ranks third in the NFL with 22 sacks.
It seems Colts running back Joseph Addai (282 rushing yards, 4 TD) is fully recovered from a hamstring injury that sidelined him for two weeks. Addai has no more than 78 yards rushing in a game this season and hasn't surpassed more than 34 yards on the ground over the previous two weeks. Addai and Rhodes (290 rushing yards, 3 TD) are part of the worst ground attack in the league, as the Colts are averaging just 69.2 rushing yards per game this season. Houston is not too bad at defending the run, leaving Addai with another difficult task at hand. Addai does have four rushing touchdowns in the past three games versus the Texans. Rhodes leads the team in rushing and carried the ball seven times for 28 yards at Pittsburgh.
Bentley (22 tackles, 1 sack) stepped in last week after linebacker Zac Diles was lost for the season with a broken leg in the Texans' previous game. He had seven tackles, including a sack, and will most likely get the starting nod again versus the Colts. Linebacker Morlon Greenwood (36 tackles) went down with an ankle injury against the Ravens, although X-rays were negative. Rookie linebacker Xavier Adibi (3 tackles) could move into the starting lineup if Greenwood is unable to play. Houston is struggling up front with star defensive tackle Amobi Okoye (11 tackles) out with an injury, and yielded more than 150 rushing yards for the second straight week in the Baltimore game. DelJuan Robinson (13 tackles) has filled in adequately for Okoye and made three stops against Baltimore. Stud middle linebacker DeMeco Ryans (62 tackles) is second on the team in tackles behind Diles and had 11 stops on Sunday. Ryans, though, has reached double digits in tackles just three times this season. Expect Addai and Rhodes to test Houston's 23rd-rated run defense early.
FANTASY FOCUS
Manning, Wayne and Addai should have decent fantasy games on Sunday, with Manning likely compiling the most points against a mediocre Houston defense. Addai hasn't been fantasy worthy the past two weeks, but no time is better than the present to break out of a slump. Like Manning, Wayne is a definite starter each week barring any injury. Desperate owners looking for a quick fix can use either Harrison or Clark for this week. Rosenfels and Johnson are good choices for Sunday because the Texans like to pass often. Rosenfels has a chance to reach the 300-yard passing mark, but touchdown throws may be minimal. Slaton should be spry enough to get a start after Kubiak possibly tricked the fantasy world by limiting the rested rookie's touches versus the Ravens.
OVERALL ANALYSIS
Unfortunately for the Texans, they are facing a team on the cusp of being eliminated from postseason contention. Indianapolis is behind a few teams for an AFC wild card spot and needs to win on Sunday to stay alive. Manning has been playing much better in recent weeks and is starting a strong passing trend with Wayne, who will give the Texans' defensive backfield fits. Rosenfels and Johnson also will get their numbers, while Williams and Ryans will do their fair share of damage on defense. But that won't be enough to top the division-rival Colts on the road.
Sportsbook Betting Lines Predicted Outcome: Colts 33, Texans 17
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MySportsbook.com : Fortune Favors Favorites in March Madness betting?
Just like Day 1 of the “Sweet 16”, Friday’s games are chock full of some of the nation’s elite. Unlike Thursday’s games, there is a little bit more of a “Cinderella” feel as #7 seed UNLV and #6 seed Vanderbilt will attempt to move on to the Elite Eight. With powerhouses Florida, UNC and Georgetown looking to continue their momentum against lesser known teams, it isn’t surprising that once again the “betting public” is backing most of the favorites. As the early coin rolls in, 56% of Sportsbook.com bettors prefer Georgetown (-7.5) as they take on Vanderbilt; 84% of the early money is backing Oregon (-3) as they square off against UNLV; and a slight majority (52%) of the early cash is on Florida (-10.5) against Butler as the Gators continue their quest for another National Title. The only favorite the public don’t seem confident in is UNC, as 59% of the cash is backing the underdog Trojans (+8).
Midwest
#1 Florida vs. #5 Butler
The defending National Champs have been on a mission since last April. Joakim Noah and Al Horford turned down millions of dollars for one reason, to REPEAT. After a late season hiccup which saw them lose three out of four, the Gators have won six straight by an average of 20.3 points. More importantly, they covered in five of those six games. Behind their stymie defense that yields only 56.9 PPG, Butler has been a very pleasant surprise this season. As their 20-11 ATS record will indicate, “surprise teams” like Butler are often good bets for gamblers. Playing in an average conference, Butler wasn’t and underdog too often but when they were, they covered (6-0 ATS). Butler’s defense will have its hands full against a Gators offense which averages 80.1 PPG on an amazing 52.9% shooting from the field. With Florida’s tournament experience over the last few years, it isn’t surprising that they are 5-1 ATS this season, 20-4 ATS over the last three seasons and 38-20 since 1997 in tournament action.
#3 Oregon vs. #7 UNLV
As a #7 seed, UNLV is the closest thing to a “Cinderella” we have this year. If you bet on UNLV this season with any regularity, you most likely cashed in. Behind their guard oriented attack, the Rebels are an impressive 20-11 ATS this season. As an underdog they covered in 8 out of their ten games which isn’t surprising since they are 52-30 ATS as a ‘dog since 1997. The Rebels have been a consistent cover during the month of March as well. This March they are 6-0 ATS, 11-3 ATS over the last three seasons and 24-11 since 1997. Their impressive ATS trends don’t end there; versus teams with a winning record they are 15-6 ATS this season and 41-21 over the last three seasons. Although Oregon hasn’t been as generous to gamblers as UNLV this season, they have been covering consistently as of late. There is no question that they are playing their best ball of the season having won their last 8 straight up (SU) by an average of 14.5 points. Not surprising they covered in 7 of those games. It is interesting to note how similar these teams are in regards to scoring and scoring defense. UNLV averages 75 PPG while giving up 66.5 PPG and Oregon scores 75.8 PPG while yielding 65.5 PPG.
East
#6 Vanderbilt vs. #2 Georgetown
“Hoya Paranoia” is officially back! After a decent start, Georgetown has rolled through the second half of the season. Over their last 18 games, they are 17-1 SU. They have definitely improved ATS as the season has progressed as well. After opening the season 1-4-1 ATS, the Hoyas have covered 78.3% of their games. With their great interior play of Jeff Green and Roy Hibbert, the Hoyas as a team shoot 50.5% from the field. Like the Georgetown teams from years ago, they also excel on defense. Hoya opponents averaged only 56.8 PPG on 38.2% shooting from the field and an extremely low 30.4% from beyond the arc. The last stat could be of some concern to Vanderbilt considering they shoot 37.7% from long-range. Ranking second to last in the SEC in rebounding margin, Vanderbilt will have its work cut out for them against the Hoya trees. As far as covering is concerned, Vanderbilt has been almost a “sure thing” (7-1 ATS) versus good defensive teams that allow less than 64 PPG.
#1 UNC vs. # 5 USC
The Tar Heels are as talented and as deep as any team in the country. Going ten deep and chock full of HS All-Americans, UNC averages 86.1 PPG and scored 100+ seven times. Led by All-American forward, Tyler Hansbrough (18.6 PPG 7.9 RPG) UNC has a very balanced attack which can kill you on the inside as well as on the perimeter. UNC only real concern is their youth as eight of their rotation players are either sophomores or freshmen. UNC was a reliable cover this season going 20-13 ATS. An intriguing covering trend for the Tar Heels in recent years has been how they fared after non-conference games. This season they are 11-3 ATS after non-conference games and over the last three seasons they are 31-13 ATS. USC is also a pretty deep team which is loaded with swingman types. An match-up to keep an eye on will be freshman forward Taj Gibson (12.1 PPG, 8.6 RPG) as he squares off against the AA Hansbrough. USC has been a covering machine this season achieving a 21-10 record ATS. They have thrived in the underdog role, having covered 10 out of 12. When playing a team with a winning record, the Trojans are an incredible 20-6 ATS. Keep in mind, USC dedicated their season to former star to Ryan Francis who passed away before the season so as they get closer to the ultimate goal, emotion could definitely be on their side.
With Friday -105 juice on Basketball betting, MySportsbook.com is the place to bet on all of the “March Madness” action. Don’t forget to monitor who the public is backing at this sportsbook “Betting Trends”. By doing so, you have the best chance of predicting a possible line change, thus getting the best value for your wager.
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MySportsbook.com Favors Fighting Irish to win College Football betting odds
According to odds makers at MySportsbook.com, on January 8, the Fighting Irish faithful may be toasting their 14th national title in Arizona – Notre Dame’s first national championship in close to 20 years.
Although MySportsbook.com has listed Notre Dame as the 5-1 favorite to win thecollege football College Football betting, fans in Columbus do not need to cancel their tickets to Glendale just yet. The Ohio State Buckeyes, listed right behind the Irish at 7-1, are also heavy favorites to win college football’s most coveted prize, while West Virginia, USC and the 2007 National Champion Texas Longhorns - all listed at 8-1 – are strong contenders as well.
MySportsbook.com has also posted gambling odds on the conference championships for the ACC, Big 12 and SEC. In the ACC – it could be anyone’s title, particularly for the two schools from the Sunshine State. Florida State and Miami, both listed at 2-1, are favored to win the ACC Championship Game odds, with the ‘Noles hoping to finish in the nation’s top 10 for the first time in five years, and the ‘Canes looking to avenge their 10-7 loss against FSU in last year’s ACC Championship betting.
Moving west to the Big 12, MySportsbook.com has betting lines listing Texas as 7-5 favorites to repeat as conference champions, even though the Longhorns lost their national championship-winning quarterback Vince Young to the NFL. In the south, the Auburn Tigers – led by Heisman-hopeful senior running back Kenny Irons – have been given the best odds to win the SEC Championship odds at 5-2.
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5-1 7-1 8-1 8-1 8-1 12-1 15-1 15-1 18-1 20-1 20-1 20-1 20-1 20-1 25-1 40-1 40-1 50-1 60-1 60-1 60-1 70-1 70-1 100-1 100-1 100-1 100-1 100-1 150-1 200-1 200-1 200-1 200-1 200-1 250-1 250-1 300-1 300-1 300-1 300-1 300-1 300-1 400-1 500-1 500-1 500-1 500-1 1000-1 1000-1 40-1 |
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2-1 2-1 3-1 7-1 15-1 15-1 15-1 30-1 30-1 30-1 50-1 500-1 |
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7-5 9-5 9-2 12-1 14-1 15-1 15-1 30-1 30-1 35-1 100-1 100-1 |
| Auburn Florida LSU Georgia Tennessee Arkansas Alabama Mississippi South Carolina Mississippi State Kentucky Vanderbilt |
5-2 11-4 4-1 6-1 7-1 7-1 9-1 20-1 28-1 75-1 100-1 300-1 |
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