Defense at a Premium In Saints-Chiefs Tilt?

Football Betting Lines

11/14/2008 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - No offense, but fans of defensive football had better lower their expectations when they tune into Sunday's matchup between the New Orleans Saints and Kansas City Chiefs at Arrowhead Stadium.

Both the visiting Saints and homestanding Chiefs have struggled mightily on the defensive side of the football this season, and a rash of injuries for both clubs don't figure to alter that scenario on Sunday.

At the same time, both have been able to count offense as a strength of late, enhancing the possibility of the Week 11 matchup being a high-scoring affair.

New Orleans' strength in the passing game has been well-documented.

New Orleans is No. 1 in the league in total offense (416.2 yards per game) and passing offense (325.7 yards per game) as it heads to the Show-Me-State, and Saints quarterback Drew Brees leads the NFL in passing yards (2975) as Week 11 commences.

Brees, who is averaging 330.6 passing yards per game, must average 301.3 yards over his final seven games to break the NFL single-season passing record of 5,084 yards, set by Miami's Dan Marino in 1984.

He'll be thrilled to go up against a Kansas City club that ranks last in the NFL in total defense (406.2 yards per game), sacks recorded (6), and opponents' third-down percentage (50.8). Backfield mate Reggie Bush (knee), who is expected to return to the lineup following a two-game absence, will be equally pleased to go up against a Chiefs team that is last in the league in rushing defense (172.3 yards per game), yards allowed per rush (5.2), and rushes allowed of 20 yards or longer (15).

Adding insult to injury (or perhaps the other way around), Kansas City will be without defensive starters such as linebackers Derrick Johnson (thigh) and Pat Thomas (hamstring), while end Tamba Hali (knee), cornerbacks Brandon Flowers (thigh), Patrick Surtain (quadriceps), and safety Jarrad Page (groin) are all regarded as questionable for Sunday.

The Chiefs enter Sunday's contest having lost four straight and 17 of their last 18 dating back to last year, including a 20-19 near-miss in San Diego last Sunday.

Second-year quarterback Tyler Thigpen put together another encouraging performance in the win, completing 27-of-41 passes for 266 yards and three touchdowns in the loss. After struggling early in the season, with the Chiefs averaging just 12.5 points over their first six contests, Kansas City has now scored 70 points (23.3 per game) in three games since Thigpen has become the full-time starter.

The Coastal Carolina product will likely have former Pro Bowl running back Larry Johnson back in the fold following a four-game suspension, and will also be battling a Saints defense that is 24th in the NFL in defense (348 yards per game), No. 27 against the pass (238.4 yards per game), and tied for 26th in sacks (14).

New Orleans lost top cornerback Mike McKenzie to a season-ending knee injury in last Sunday's 34-20 loss at the Atlanta Falcons, with McKenzie joining end recently shut-down end Charles Grant (triceps) on that hard-luck list.

The Saints begin Week 11 in last place in the NFC South (4-5), and are two games back of the final Wild Card spot in the conference.

SERIES HISTORY

The all-time series between the Saints and Chiefs is knotted, 4-4, with New Orleans evening the series by virtue of a 27-20 home win when the clubs last met, in 2004. The Chiefs were 25-13 home winners in the previous meeting, in 1997. The Saints are 2-1 at Arrowhead Stadium all-time, winning there in 1976 and 1991.

Chiefs head coach Herm Edwards is 1-1 in his career against the Saints, with both games dating back to his tenure with the Jets (2001-2005). The Saints' Sean Payton will be meeting both Edwards and Kansas City for the first time as a head coach.

WHEN THE SAINTS HAVE THE BALL

Brees (17 TD, 10 INT) threw for 422 yards and a pair of touchdowns in last week's loss to Atlanta, but also tossed three interceptions and saw 27 of his whopping 58 pass attempts fail to land in the arms of his own receivers. Four different players caught at least five passes in the game, led by Marques Colston (12 receptions) whose seven-catch, 140-yard day was his best of the season. Wideout Lance Moore (44 receptions, 4 TD) and tight end Billy Miller (28 receptions) have also been reliable targets for Brees, who has passed for 320 or more yards in seven of his nine appearances this year. Though Bush (294 rushing yards, 42 receptions, 8 total TD) was averaging just 3.4 yards per carry prior to suffering his knee injury against the Panthers on Oct. 19th, it is hoped that he can bring a spark to a running game that sank to 27th in the league in rushing (90.6 yards per game) in his absence. Against Atlanta, three Saints running backs combined for just 65 rushing yards. The New Orleans offensive line continues to call pass-blocking its primary strength, having surrendered just eight sacks all year.

You might need a program to identify the Chiefs defensive starters on Sunday, with a large number of newcomers and youngsters expected to play key roles for the battered group. In last Sunday's loss to the Chargers, cornerbacks David Macklin and Ricardo Colcough played significant minutes despite being signed as street free agents earlier in the week, while elsewhere in the secondary, Maurice Leggett (15 tackles) joined fellow rookie cornerback Brandon Carr (45 tackles, 2 INT) in the starting lineup. At linebacker, rookie Weston Dacus (7 tackles) and veteran journeyman Rocky Boiman (18 tackles) saw major time, and defensive lineman Wallace Gilberry (1 tackle) - also signed last week due to injuries - did as well. Two staples that will be in the lineup are safeties Bernard Pollard (52 tackles, 1 INT) and Jon McGraw (31 tackles, 1 INT), who had 10 tackles each and recorded interceptions against the Chargers last Sunday. Defensive tackles Glenn Dorsey (25 tackles, 1 sack) and Ron Edwards (5 tackles, 1 sack), each of whom had sacks of Philip Rivers, are also slated to appear.

WHEN THE CHIEFS HAVE THE BALL

Thigpen (1102 passing yards, 8 TD, 4 INT) has given the Chiefs a chance to win in each of his last three outings, throwing for six touchdowns without an interception and putting up a passer rating of better than 100 in losses to the Jets and Chargers. The Coastal Carolina product has developed a strong chemistry with wideouts Dwayne Bowe (48 receptions, 3 TD) and Mark Bradley (19 receptions, 2 TD) along with tight end Tony Gonzalez (50 receptions, 5 TD), with the trio accounting for all 266 of the team's receiving yards last week. The ageless Gonzalez was high-man with 10 catches for 113 yards and two touchdowns, Bradley continued his ascent with nine catches for 81 yards and a score, and Bowe chipped in with six grabs totaling 72 yards. Johnson's expected return to the lineup is viewed as a good thing for the offense, and with the passing game going strong the former Pro Bowler should find a bit more running room than he did before his suspension. Johnson (417 rushing yards, 3 TD, 6 receptions) rushed seven times for only two yards in his most recent outing, against Carolina on Oct. 5. An offensive line that has allowed 24 sacks on the year will have to be effective at both protecting Thigpen and blocking for Johnson.

The Saints have had their struggles against both the run and the pass this season, but it is the latter that should concern New Orleans the most heading into Sunday. With McKenzie absent from the lineup, Randall Gay (25 tackles) and the embattled Jason David (9 tackles, 1 INT) are the most likely candidates to oppose Bowe and Bradley, and safeties Roman Harper (42 tackles) and Kevin Kaesviharn (50 tackles, 1 INT) will have to lend plenty of support over the top. The pass rush has managed just 14 sacks all year, including a disappointing two from supposed top end Will Smith (25 tackles). The team has been stronger against the run this year, ranking 19th in the league in that category (109.6 yards per game), and held the Falcons' Michael Turner to just 96 yards on 27 carries last Sunday. Linebackers Scott Fujita (35 tackles, 1 INT) and Jonathan Vilma (75 tackles, 1 INT) have been among the team's strongest run-stoppers, and tackles Sedrick Ellis (15 tackles, 1 sack) and Kendrick Clancy (24 tackles, 2 sacks) have also been active against the rush. Fujita had a game-high 12 tackles against the Falcons.

FANTASY FOCUS

This game figures to produce a giant number of fantasy points. Brees is the top-ranked fantasy quarterbacks in many leagues, and though he spreads the ball around, his proficiency makes players like Colston, Moore, and tight ends Miller and Jeremy Shockey are worth considering as well. You would usually hesitate in going with Bush given his status coming off a serious injury, but the favorable matchup should allow him to make a seamless return to the Saints lineup and fantasy rosters. Kicker Garrett Hartley also figures to put up a fair amount of points here.

Thigpen is probably deserving of backup status on fantasy rosters at this stage, but remember that he'll only be making his fifth NFL start, so don't use him based on matchup alone. You can feel safe starting Bowe and Gonzalez, however, and impressive new addition Bradley looks like a suitable flex option. Stay away from Larry Johnson until you are sure how many touches the Chiefs plan to give him. The Kansas City defense and kicker Connor Barth should remain on all waiver wires.

OVERALL ANALYSIS

Both of these teams have flaws that have sent them to last place, but it should be clear by both the records, and the play of the clubs, which group has the most problems. The Chiefs have been a poor defensive team for much of the year, and the absence of a number of starters on Sunday isn't going to do much for them, especially against a passing attack as powerful as that of the Saints. New Orleans has been Drew Brees and not much else for the past couple of weeks, but his presence is significant, and the potential return of Bush is another credit to the New Orleans attack. Thigpen's work has been encouraging for the Chiefs, but he's hardly ready to out-duel one of the NFL's top quarterbacks at this stage.

Sportsbook Betting Lines Predicted Outcome: Saints 37, Chiefs 23

Pacific-10 Conference odds

Teams that should be in: Stanford

Oregon and USC get their tickets punched after taking care of business this weekend. Yes, the Trojans' computer numbers aren't great, but there's no way the third-place team in this league is getting nixed. Grudgingly, I added Arizona after consultation with our Bracketologist. I don't know that Arizona will lose its last three (including a Pac-10 quarterfinal game), and even if the Cats do, I still can't see how they'd be left out, given the overall profile. That said, it bears watching, as three more L's would leave them at 18-12 (9-9) and on a 6-11 skid entering the Dance. It would be nice to see the Wildcats get at least one W in the Bay Area next week, as Cincinnati (albeit without Armein Kirkland and with a worse profile) was axed after a similar slide last season. I just couldn't rationalize having some of the other teams as locks and not having Arizona in that category -- there just aren't enough good teams behind the Cats to threaten their spot, it seems. Stanford has its fate in its own hands with the Arizona schools coming to the Farm to close out the regular season next weekend.

Should be in:

Stanford [17-10 (9-7), RPI: 40, SOS: 21] No shame in not getting a win in L.A., but that makes the home game against Arizona State a must-win ahead of what could be an intriguing meeting with Arizona should the Cats lose at Cal. Getting to 11 Pac-10 wins would make Selection Sunday much more comfortable, but 10's probably more than enough this season. The Cardinal have nonconference wins over Texas Tech and at Virginia to lean on, although they also lost badly to Air Force and Santa Clara at home.

Southeastern Conference odds

Work left to do: Alabama, Georgia, Mississippi, Mississippi State It looks more and more possible that no one from the SEC West will make the NCAAs. How weird is that? Tennessee and Vandy move into the locks category after more good work this weekend. Kentucky stays there, although it would be smart for the Cats to handle Georgia at home Wednesday ahead of a trip to the Swamp. Could a disaster scenario (two more L's and a first-round SEC tourney exit) somehow dislodge the Cats despite their incredible computer numbers? Still unlikely, but not worth chancing it. Work left to do: Alabama [19-9 (6-8), RPI: 43, SOS: 47] The tough L at Tennessee was understandable, and even created some hope. Unfortunately, that hope was dashed by a home loss to Auburn, which leaves the Tide in some real trouble. There's still no signature win on the profile (no, Kentucky doesn't count), and the computer profile is weakening rapidly. The Tide conceivably could beat Ole Miss and win at Miss. State to get to 8-8 and clinch at least a share of the West crown, but that's probably not enough right now. The Tide will need to do some work in the SEC tourney. Georgia [16-10 (8-6), RPI: 52, SOS: 23] This is the team with the best chance to make it from this section right now. The Bulldogs rebounded from a terrible performance at Ole Miss to beat down Miss. State. Now they are at Kentucky (king of the RPI 51-100 win) and home to Tennessee. That would be worth a lot of computer points to get both (which is doable), as both teams are in the top 11 in RPI. Finishing at least 9-7 is an absolute must, and I would feel much better about the Dawgs' chances if they got both to get to 10 SEC wins. They also beat Gonzaga, but lost to ACC bubblers Georgia Tech and Clemson. Mississippi [18-10 (7-7), RPI: 63, SOS: 79] Like everyone else in this division, Ole Miss gacked up a chance to stake a claim, losing by double figures at South Carolina. Even 9-7 likely is not nearly enough with a nonconference profile devoid of anything notable. Mississippi State [16-11 (7-7), RPI: 66, SOS: 37] With a chance to get in the mix, these Bulldogs were leashed by their Georgia counterparts. Could they get to 9-7? I guess -- although winning at Arkansas, then beating Alabama is no lock -- but would that mean all that much for a team with this overall profile? Probably not. There's nothing of note (on the good side) in the nonconference profile.

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