Eagles Can't Afford to Fall in Cincinnati

Football Betting Lines

11/14/2008 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - If the Philadelphia Eagles are serious about remaining in the NFC playoff race, they had better not slip up on Sunday at Paul Brown Stadium.

The 1-8 Bengals will be the opponent for Andy Reid and company, and dropping a contest to Cincinnati would seriously reduce the margin for error in Philadelphia's quest to return to the postseason following a one-year hiatus.

Already, the Eagles find themselves in a perilous position, having dropped to 5-4 and into a tie for last in the NFC East with last Sunday's 36-31 loss to the arch rival New York Giants. The home loss sent Philly to 0-3 within their crowded division - with two of the defeats coming within friendly confines - a situation that threatens to have negative ramifications in potential tie- breaking scenarios.

As Week 11 begins, the Birds are three games back of the first-place Giants in the East, and one out in a Wild Card race that currently has three teams (Atlanta, Tampa Bay, Washington) at 6-3.

For their part, the homestanding Bengals only wish they had the luxury of discussing obstacles in the playoff race.

Cincinnati's chances for a postseason appearance all but evaporated when the club started 0-8 for the fifth time in team history, but the clouds began to part just before the team's Week 10 bye.

Marvin Lewis' squad scored a hard-fought 21-19 victory over the visiting Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 8, avoiding the prospect of becoming the first team in NFL history to finish 0-16.

The win was the first in the NFL starting career of Bengals quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick, who will again open behind center for the team this week.

No. 1 QB Carson Palmer will miss his sixth game, including his fifth in a row, with a persistent elbow injury. Despite speculation that the former Heisman Trophy winner and No. 1 overall Draft choice will eventually be placed on season-ending injured reserve, the organization has yet to rule out the possibility of Palmer returning to the lineup at some point.

SERIES HISTORY

Cincinnati owns a 7-3 advantage in the all-time series with Philadelphia, including a 38-10 rout when the teams last met, in Week 17 of the 2004 season. In that game, the Eagles rested most of their starters in preparation for the playoffs. Philadelphia's most recent win in the series came in 2000 at Veterans Stadium, but the Birds are 0-3 in Cincinnati all-time. The Bengals earned home wins over the Eagles in 1971, 1979, and 1994.

Reid is 1-1 against Cincinnati in his head coaching career, while the Bengals' Lewis is 1-0 versus both Reid and the Eagles as a head coach.

WHEN THE EAGLES HAVE THE BALL

Philadelphia Pro Bowl running back Brian Westbrook (448 rushing yards, 29 receptions, 8 TD) was almost completely shut down in last week's loss to the Giants, managing just 26 yards on 13 carries and contributing three catches for 33 yards out of the backfield. The work of an Eagles run-blocking group that lacks a true fullback and is missing Pro Bowl guard Shawn Andrews (back) has not aided Westbrook, but the Villanova product should be able to find more holes this week. Without the running dimension to complement him, Eagles QB Donovan McNabb (2372 passing yards, 13 TD, 5 INT) was not at his optimum effectiveness versus the Giants. McNabb threw three touchdowns in the loss but also completed just 17-of-36 passes for a season-low 194 yards. Rookie wideout DeSean Jackson (38 receptions, 3 TD) has been the Birds' most reliable pass- catcher this season, and Kevin Curtis (12 receptions, 1 TD), Jason Avant (15 receptions, 1 TD) and Hank Baskett (20 receptions, 3 TD) also had TDs versus the Giants. The Philadelphia o-line has allowed a modest 13 sacks on the season.

The Bengals defense enters Week 11 ranked 25th against the run (138.1 yards per game), 31st in sacks (9), and tied for 27th in interceptions (5), but does come off arguably its finest defensive outing of the year against the Jaguars. Cincinnati allowed the Jags to muster just nine first downs and 68 rushing yards on the day, also dragging David Garrard down for three sacks. Linebackers Dhani Jones (69 tackles, 1 INT), Rashad Jeanty (55 tackles), and tackle Domata Peko (41 tackles) have been among the club's most serviceable run-stoppers this year. Jones was a member of the Eagles from 2004 to 2006. End Robert Geathers (33 tackles, 1.5 sacks) and tackle Pat Sims (18 tackles, 1 sack) accounted for two of the sacks in the Jacksonville contest. Cornerbacks Johnathan Joseph (37 tackles) and Leon Hall (33 tackles) don't have an interception between them this season, but safeties Marvin White (46 tackles, 1 INT) and Chinedum Ndukwe (51 tackles, 2 sacks, 1 INT) have been decent versus the run.

WHEN THE BENGALS HAVE THE BALL

Though the Bengals did some nice things offensively in the win over the Jaguars, Cincinnati continues to rank last in the league in total offense (238.2 yards per game) and has managed to score 20 points or more just three times in nine contests. Fitzpatrick (789 passing yards, 4 TD, 6 INT) has given the team a different dimension with his scrambling ability (173 rushing yards), but has failed to display much of a deep arm, which has limited big plays to Chad Johnson (37 receptions, 4 TD) and T.J. Houshmandzadeh (61 receptions, 3 TD). Houshmandzadeh, however, does have six or more catches in each of his last seven games. Johnson scored two touchdowns against Jacksonville, doubling his season total in the contest. That said, the biggest development in the triumph over the Jaguars may have been the first 100-yard game in the Bengals career of running back Cedric Benson (241 rushing yards, 1 TD). Benson has afforded Cincinnati a spark in his three outings with the team, averaging over a yard more per carry than his predecessor, Chris Perry (253 rushing yards, 2 TD, 15 receptions). The Bengals offensive line has struggled in all aspects during 2008, including in pass-blocking, where the team has allowed 30 sacks.

Benson may be able to find some room against a Philadelphia defense that was gutted by the Giants' rushing attack last week. New York piled up 219 ground yards on 45 carries for the night, dropping Jim Johnson's unit to 14th in the NFL against the run (103.4 yards per game). Tackles Brodrick Bunkley (27 tackles, 1 sack) and Mike Patterson (22 tackles, 1 INT) will have to better control the line of scrimmage on Sunday, with linebackers Stewart Bradley (64 tackles, 1 sack), Chris Gocong (32 tackles, 2 sacks), and Omar Gaither (48 tackles, 2.5 sacks) making more plays behind them. The Eagles have been better against the pass, ranking sixth in the NFL in that category (190.1 yards per game), and the strength of the defense has been a pass rush that has generated 28 sacks. Ends Juqua Parker (26 tackles, 5 sacks, 1 INT) and Trent Cole (41 tackles, 4 sacks) have been Philly's most prolific sack men. On the back end, corrnerbacks Asante Samuel (22 tackles, 3 INT) and Sheldon Brown (26 tackles) will have to control Johnson and Houshmandzadeh, with safeties Brian Dawkins (46 tackles, 2 sacks) and Quintin Mikell (52 tackles, 2 INT, 1 sack) assisting over the top.

FANTASY FOCUS

McNabb and Westbrook both had weak fantasy outings last week against the Giants, but should see their numbers increase dramatically against the defensively-challenged Bengals. Jackson is also worth using as a flex option, especially in leagues that value return points. Given the state of the Bengals offense and their trouble protecting the quarterback, the Philadelphia defense is a worthwhile start, as is kicker David Akers.

Benson's 100-yard day last time out and generally strong play since arriving in Cincinnati makes him worth considering as a starting option, though with bye weeks now over, fantasy owners should find at least two starters better than him in their lineups. Houshmandzadeh remains a bona fide fantasy starter, but Chad Johnson simply hasn't been consistent enough to be called a must- play.

OVERALL ANALYSIS

The Eagles still believe they can realize their playoff dreams, and know they can't afford to toy around with an inferior Bengals team if they wish to keep those dreams afloat. McNabb and Westbrook should be able to keep a shaky Cincinnati defense on its heels, while an Eagles defense that could use a break after facing the Giants last week won't be troubled a heck of a lot by Fitzpatrick, Benson, and the limited Bengals attack. Moreover, Cincinnati is not a team that has played with much emotion this season, and now that the Bengals have their win, probably won't play with the same hunger that the Eagles will bring to town.

Sportsbook Betting Lines Predicted Outcome: Eagles 26, Bengals 13