Nuggets top Kings in OT on Afflalo's jumper

Basketball Betting Lines

02/02/2010 - Denver, CO (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Arron Afflalo poured in 12 points, including the game-winning jumper with 18.4 seconds left in overtime, as the Denver Nuggets stayed hot at home with a 112-109 victory over the Sacramento Kings at the Pepsi Center.

Kenyon Martin ended with 24 points and 12 rebounds for the Nuggets, who have won nine in a row at home. Chauncey Billups finished with 23 points and nine assists, Ty Lawson donated 15 points off the bench and Nene chipped in 14 points and six boards for Denver, which has won two straight and 10 of 11 overall.

The Nuggets played their fifth consecutive game without All-Star forward Carmelo Anthony, who is still nursing an ankle injury.

Spencer Hawes tallied 23 points and seven rebounds for the Kings, who have lost three in a row and 10 of 11 overall. Kevin Martin ended with 22 points, six assists, and five rebounds, while Omri Casspi chipped in 14 points for Sacramento, which has lost 10 consecutive road games.

The Nuggets ripped off six straight points early in overtime and went ahead 107-102 on a pair of Afflalo free throws with 3:11 remaining.

The Kings then responded with seven consecutive points, as Hawes' trey gave Sacramento a 109-107 edge with about 1 1/2 minutes to go.

The back-and-forth battle continued as the Nuggets scored the final five points of the extra session to claim victory. Nene's layup made it 109-109 and, following a Kevin Martin turnover, Afflalo made a baseline jumper with 18.4 ticks left to make it a two-point tilt.

Kevin Martin missed a jumper at the other end, and Billups made 1-of-2 from the line with 0.7 seconds remaining to seal the win.

The Nuggets started the fourth on a 14-3 run to take the lead. Afflalo's layup had Denver in front 87-81 with seven minutes remaining.

A Hawes jumper and pair of Kevin Martin free throws cut the deficit to 89-87 with less than 5 1/2 minutes to play in regulation.

Billups' layup had Denver ahead 99-95 with 55 seconds to go, but the Kings scored the final four points of the fourth to send the contest into overtime.

Casspi made a short jumper at the other end to cut the gap to two. Nene then turned the ball over at the opposite end of the floor, giving Sacramento a chance to tie or go in front.

Casspi's jumper was off the mark, but Hawes was there for the tip-in to tie the tilt at 99 with 27.9 seconds remaining.

Billups and Hawes each missed shots in the final seconds to send the game into OT.

The score was tied at 26-26 following 12 minutes of play. A pair of Lawson free throws have the Nuggets a 38-37 edge with 8:44 left in the second, but the Kings responded with a 27-10 run to build a large lead. Kevin Martin's trey had Sacramento ahead 64-48, and the score was 64-50 at the half.

Trailing 72-55 with 6 1/2 minutes remaining in the third, Denver closed the period on an 18-6 burst to get within five. Billups made two three-pointers during the flurry, which Lawson capped with a jumper to make it 78-73 heading to the fourth.

Game Notes

The Kings turned the ball over 19 times, leading to 25 Denver points...Sacramento outrebounded the Nuggets, 48-33...The Kings had won the first two games of the season series.

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Horse Betting

(This is an update of a sportsbook for the May 4th issue of ESPN The Magazine).

The Kentucky Derby's post-position draw happened on Wednesday. And, as is always the case, shortly afterwards, a buzz raced around Churchill Downs. It was a low rumble at first, nothing that the squares in the mint julep crowd pick up right away. But by the time the sun set over the twin spires, the chatter was impossible to ignore. Everyone -- sharps, trainers, owners -- was talking about one thing: the wise guy horse, the pre-draw long shot us mopes didn't have on our radar until it was too late.

"You think you're hearing the scoop," says handicapper Lane Gold. "Then you get to the window, the odds are short, and you missed it."

Recognizing a wise-guy horse early is as hard as picking a Derby bonnet. That's because handicappers don't like hype (see ya, I Want Revenge). They want Thoroughbreds who look good losing prep races like the Santa Anita Derby. They eye horses who ate up the field after starting wide or made an easy transition from synthetic tracks to dirt. They look for ponies who showed muscle gain race to race and those who ran hard after several weeks' rest.

"A wise guy," says John Avello, a bookmaker at Wynn Las Vegas, "looks for a horse who can improve."

When I first wrote Horse Betting for The Mag, which I turned in a three weeks before Wednesday's draw, I predicted these three horses had wise guy potential:

CHOCOLATE CANDY (15-1 in mid-April, currently 20-1 according to Avello): His second-place finish at Santa Anita, following a seven-week layoff, proved two things: He can run after resting, and -- by losing a high-profile prep race -- he wouldn't be overhyped.

DESERT PARTY (15-1; 15-1): He was upset in the UAE Derby by a horse he had beaten twice. The public remembers his loss, but the wise guys his wins.

PIONEEROF THE NILE (8-1; 4-1): The big favorite at Santa Anita struggled to win, so he initially got less hype than Quality Road and I Want Revenge.

You may have noticed that the odds on Pioneerof the Nile have been cut in half, from 8-1 to 4-1. Which means the wise guys took a shine to him long before the post-position draw. But, to be honest, this is one of those years with four elite horses getting everyone's attention, squares and sharps alike.

"You're not gonna get a lot of chatter about a horse that isn't in that group, which includes Pioneer, I Want Revenge, Dunkirk and Friesan Fire," Avello told me Wednesday. "We don't have a group of horses behind those top four who look like real legit contenders."

Come Derby week, the final two elements in picking a wise guy horse are how he's working out and what gate he's coming out of.

(By the way, picking a Preakness favorite is a whole different bale of hay, partially based on how horses finish in the Derby. You can see my analysis of who has the best shot at Pimlico on Insider Sunday morning.)

Well, early in the week I Want Revenge, Pioneerof the Nile and Friesan Fire were working out better than anyone. Some thought Friesan Fire, currently 6-1, might have run too fast, burning a five-furlong run in :57 4/5. "When you are running that fast you have the sense that it took something out of him," says Gold. "The Derby is longer than any horse has run, and if they need that extra surge you worry they won't have it because they burned it in the workout."

But, Gold points out, Friesan Fire's trainer is Larry Jones, Two years ago his horse Hard Spun did a five-eighths workout in :57 3/5 and then went on to finish second, behind Street Sense, in the Derby. "Every trainer has different methods," says Gold. "And clearly he knows what he's doing."

Now, as for starting position, Gold says to remember this: Churchill Downs traditionally has 14 starting gates. For the Derby, it brings out auxiliary gates and between the original 14th gate and the new 15th gate, there is a little more space than there is between gates 1-14. "That 15 position will give you a precious second or two to sort out what's happening to your inside," says Gold. "Sixteen is also okay because you can follow the horse in front of you."

Dunkirk, one of the race favorites, is coming out of gate 15. In 16 is Baffert's Pioneerof the Nile. I Want Revenge drew 13, where Smarty Jones won from in 2004, and Friesan Fire picked the sixth position. "He doesn't have a lot of speed to the inside of him," says Gold. "So he will get a clear shot to be near the front."

All the jibber-jabber means this: Pioneerof the Nile has leapfrogged from 8-1 to being the second favorite, along with Dunkirk, behind I Want Revenge. Meanwhile, Friesan Fire, with a good trainer, a strong week of training and a decent post position, is still at 6-1. "By Saturday, it's possible he could go from fourth to the favorite," says Gold.

In other words, meet Friesan Fire, your 2009 wise guy horse.

"Now," says Avello, "it's time for action."

To visit this horse betting site go to MySportsbook.com for all your horse racing betting needs.